Monday, June 2, 2008

FiveThirtyEight Has Obama Winning By 5 Points

Talk about being all over the map, American Research Group came out with a poll earlier today that had Hillary Clinton winning South Dakota by 26%. That number sounded a bit screwy to me and this evening the projection site FiveThirtyEight.com released their data which has Barack Obama winning by 5 points.
Prediction: Our model's official prediction is Obama 52.5 percent, Clinton 47.5 percent, for a margin of 5 points exactly. We're also projecting distinctly heavy turnout of 130,915 voters out of South Dakota's roughly 200,000 registered Democrats, for voting tallies of Obama 68,701, Clinton 62,213, a net gain of about 6500 votes for Mr. Obama.

Delegate wise, with just one congressional district, South Dakota is completely boring. The final split will almost certainly wind up being 8-7 for one or the other candidate. A candidate would need to win by 22.2 points to get a 9th delegate, and would earn a 10th delegate if they won by 25 points. So our delegate projection is Obama 8, Clinton 7.

I know that this isn't one of the big boys so I am relaying their data just for reference but since the big polling groups seem to be awfully quiet in regards to our primary I'm going with what's out there.

With that said, based strictly on my own personal observations, I would have to think that FiveThirtyEight's numbers appear more in line with what I think will be the results tomorrow though it could go either way as far as who actually ends up winning by that 5%.

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